Sunday, August 14, 2005
You're 2 off the blinds in a low limit hold'em game (limit) - UTG+1. You have suited Big Slick. You raise preflop and get 4 callers - the 2 blinds, and 2 others. The flop comes a rainbow of unconnected undercards. The blinds check, and you make a continuation bet. Three callers. The turn comes another blank - no obvious flush or straight draws onboard, and no face cards or Aces.
I know, there are never any hard-and-fast rules in poker. It's situational. So my situation in this case - I was at a table of mostly fish, and the only people in the hand with me were fish (except for the big blind, a super-tight passive player).
(this photo isn't from that hand, but shows the stats of my opponents. Bogey was the tight player in the hand with me. VPIP/PFR/Post-flop aggression/# hands).
Do I lead out and bet the turn, since the bet size has doubled and hope my opponents are either holding overcards or are not feeling strong with the little piece of the board they got?
Or do I just surrender my display of strength and check it, certainly to fold when someone else bets out? (My 6 outs to overcards with one card to come don't quite give me odds to chase it - and chasing "top pair" is just not the position I want to be in).
Somebody surely caught something on the board - probably one pair, since nobody is doing any raising (though the Hollywood move seems to be check-call to the river, then check-raise the river).
This is probably one of the most annoying hold'em situations to me: Big Slick that doesn't hit. In this case, I bet out on the turn, lost two more opponents, and went to the river heads-up. My opponent checked to me, and I foiled his Hollywood move and checked behind him. His A7o paired a seven and won the pot.
What I'm wondering is: is there any equity in my turn bet, with 3 opponents remaining? If I make that play knowing that if I don't hit my river card, I will surrender and check, are the combined chances of hitting my river card and forcing my opponents out of the pot enough to make up for the big bet that I lose every time I make that play and miss?
How the heck would I go about figuring the math on that? I need a Sklansky in my pocket.
And why the hell am I thinking about math this early in the morning? (It's early to me. I'm a night owl. Second-shifter).